Femi Otedola, chairman of First HoldCo, says he expects the naira to strengthen significantly and trade below ₦1,000 to the dollar before the end of 2026, citing improved domestic refining capacity and easing foreign exchange demand.
Otedola made the projection after the Dangote Refinery reached its full production capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, positioning it among the largest single-train refineries globally.
In a post shared on Thursday, February 12, 2026, Otedola said Nigeria’s shift from heavy fuel import dependence to large-scale domestic refining marks a structural change in the economy.
“I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below ₦1,000/$1 before year-end is increasingly within reach,” he said.
Why refining capacity matters for FX
Since operations began in 2023, the Dangote Refinery has reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported petroleum products, historically one of the country’s largest sources of foreign exchange demand.
With the refinery now producing up to 75 million litres of premium motor spirit (PMS) daily, the need for dollar-funded fuel imports is expected to decline further, potentially easing pressure on the foreign exchange market.
According to the refinery, full capacity was achieved after optimisation of its crude distillation unit and PMS production block following scheduled maintenance.
For FX markets, the logic is straightforward: fewer fuel imports mean lower structural demand for dollars. If export receipts or dollar inflows remain steady or improve, the naira could stabilise or appreciate.
Bigger ambitions ahead
The refinery is also embarking on a $12 billion expansion to raise total capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day. The project includes:
- 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene production
- 400,000 metric tonnes of linear alkyl benzene for detergent manufacturing
If completed as planned, the expansion would make the group the world’s largest refinery, surpassing India’s Jamnagar complex, which has a capacity of about 1.24 million barrels per day.
Otedola described the milestone as transformational for Nigeria and Africa, congratulating Aliko Dangote on achieving full production capacity.
The current reality
As of Wednesday, February 11, 2026, the naira traded around ₦1,450/$ in the parallel market, while the official rate at the Central Bank of Nigeria window stood at ₦1,348.95/$.
For the naira to break below ₦1,000/$, analysts say sustained FX inflows, fiscal discipline, and stable oil production would also need to complement reduced fuel import demand.
Otedola’s forecast signals growing optimism among business leaders that structural shifts in energy production could begin to translate into currency stability.
