As the third quarter of 2025 wrapped up, Nigeria’s private sector closed on a high note, showing resilience, growth, and cautious optimism.
According to the latest Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), business conditions remained comfortably in expansion territory for the tenth consecutive month, a sign that the country’s economy is not just stabilizing, but steadily finding its rhythm.
Though the headline PMI eased slightly to 53.4 in September from 54.2 in August, it still reflected a solid strengthening of the private sector. Behind this figure is a story of businesses pushing forward despite headwinds: output rose sharply across sectors, customer demand improved, and new product launches kept orders flowing.
Perhaps most encouraging is the cooling of inflationary pressures. For the first time in more than five years, companies reported their purchase costs rising at the slowest pace, allowing firms to expand production without the heavy burden of surging expenses. This easing cost environment also spurred job creation, with employment levels climbing at the fastest rate since late 2023.
“We’re seeing Nigerian businesses end the quarter on strong footing,” said Muyiwa Oni, head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank. “The PMI numbers reflect improved output, new orders, and softer inflationary pressures. Even though the pace of growth moderated from August, the overall outlook remains positive.”
Beyond the PMI data, the broader economy is reflecting momentum. Nigeria’s GDP grew by 4.23% year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by robust gains in agriculture and oil, alongside strong contributions from ICT, finance, and real estate. Analysts are now projecting GDP growth of 4.5% in Q3 2025, with a full-year forecast revised upward to 4.0% from 3.5%, thanks to rebasing and better-than-expected sectoral performance.
For businesses on the ground, these numbers translate into cautious optimism. Firms are hiring more, building inventory, and investing in expansion. Input costs, while still rising, are at their softest levels since early 2020, giving companies room to plan long-term.
Looking ahead, Nigeria’s private sector appears poised to keep momentum into 2026, supported by expectations of lower interest rates, easing inflation, and a more stable exchange rate. While challenges remain, the trend lines suggest a business environment slowly tilting toward growth and opportunity.
