Samsung Electronics is heading for its strongest quarterly result in more than seven years, driven by an abrupt surge in memory chip prices that has caught much of the industry off guard and changed the balance of power in semiconductors.
The company is expected to report a fourth-quarter operating profit of about 16.9 trillion won for the October–December period, according to analyst estimates compiled by LSEG.
That figure would represent a jump of roughly 160% from a year earlier and place Samsung within touching distance of its 2018 peak, when the memory market last experienced a major price cycle.
What has changed is not just demand, but the structure of it. With manufacturers focusing capacity towards advanced chips for data centres, output of conventional memory has tightened. Prices have responded with unusual force.
TrendForce data shows DDR5 DRAM prices climbed 314% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, while contract prices for standard DRAM are forecast to rise another 55% to 60% in the first quarter of this year.
That dynamic plays directly into Samsung’s hands. The company is heavily exposed to conventional DRAM, a segment that many rivals had begun to treat as mature.
“As conventional DRAM prices continue to surge, Samsung – whose production capacity is largely concentrated in this segment – stands to gain relatively more from the current price upcycle,” TrendForce analyst Avril Wu said.
This quarter goes beyond a one-off rebound. Just over a year ago, Samsung’s leadership was apologising publicly for weak performance as it fell behind SK Hynix in supplying high-bandwidth memory to Nvidia.
Today, the tone is different. On Friday, executive chairman Jun Young-hyun told investors that customers had described Samsung’s next-generation HBM4 chips by saying, “Samsung is back.”
The competitive backdrop explains why that is important. SK Hynix completed what it described as world-first HBM4 development in September 2025, doubling bandwidth and cutting power use by 40%.
By the end of last year, it had already sold out its entire 2026 supply to Nvidia. Micron, meanwhile, has told investors that tight memory conditions could last beyond 2026, with chief executive Sanjay Mehrotra warning that the company expects to meet only half to two-thirds of demand from several major customers.
At CES 2026, chipmaker Nvidia unveiled its Vera Rubin platform, confirming that the next generation of its systems will rely on HBM4 memory. Nvidia said the Vera Rubin architecture is in full production and on track for launch later this year, underlining how critical reliable HBM supply has become.
Samsung’s expected profit surge shows this bigger change. Some analysts have already lifted their fourth-quarter forecasts above 20 trillion won, betting that price momentum in traditional memory has been underestimated.
Looking further ahead, market forecasts reveal Samsung’s operating profit could exceed 100 trillion won this year, more than double last year’s level, if pricing remains firm.
Investors have largely embraced the turnaround. Samsung shares rose 125% last year, their strongest annual gain in 26 years, although they dipped 2.1% in early Tuesday trading as the wider market paused after a rally.
Risks have not disappeared. Lee Min-hee of BNK Investment & Securities cautioned that higher chip prices could cool demand for consumer devices and flagged “risks of a demand slowdown” as data centres rely more on debt to fund expansion.
Samsung itself has acknowledged the limitations on its mobile business, where rising component costs are squeezing margins. “As this situation is unprecedented, no company is immune to its impact,” co-chief executive TM Roh said, adding that the fallout looks “inevitable”.
Even so, a memory market once dismissed as cyclical has become essential to the next phase of global computing.
