As entrepreneurs, we’re often led to believe that success is solely dependent on our own efforts, dedication, and a dash of luck.
However, there’s a crucial factor that’s frequently overlooked: the technology window. This concept is so central to entrepreneurial success that it’s astonishing it’s not taught in business schools.
Every technology emerges with a limited window of opportunity, a brief period where the conditions are ideal for building a successful company around it.
This window is constantly shifting, and those who fail to grasp it are doomed to languish in obscurity. The technology window is the key to recognizing opportunities, seizing the moment, and building something truly remarkable.
Consider the railroad industry, which experienced a brief window of opportunity in the mid-19th century. Those who capitalized on this window reaped enormous rewards, but those who attempted to enter the market after this window had closed were crushed by the incumbent powers.
The same pattern holds true for the automobile industry, where the window for the internal combustion engine was open from around 1899 to 1925.
Understanding the technology window is crucial for entrepreneurs. It’s the key to recognizing where you are in the technological cycle and seizing the opportunities that arise.
The lifecycle of a technology window is predictable: a new technology emerges, hobbyists play with it, and then the “status moment” arrives, where one of these hobbyists turns the new tech into wealth and status.
At this point, competition floods in, management improves, and defensibilities like network effects or economies of scale are established. The technology window begins to close, and only about 10% of it remains open. The margins shrink, competition intensifies, and the cost of acquiring customers skyrockets.
This pattern plays out in every industry, every technology, and across every geography. The details may vary, but the closure of these windows is inevitable—and it’s predictable. When great technological shifts occur, enormous opportunities arise. Big changes lead to big opportunities.
In times of slow technological progress, the reverse is true: everyone knows the game, and the opportunity for disruptive breakthroughs diminishes. It becomes about small, incremental improvements. And it’s not just startups that are governed by these windows. You see this pattern with artists, musicians, and even asset classes.
Look at the birth of cryptocurrencies in 2008—an entirely new asset class emerged, following the same pattern of explosive early growth, then gradual closure as competition increased and inefficiencies were eliminated. The venture capital world is no different.
You might think venture capital has maintained its alpha, but that’s because the inefficiencies of the space haven’t been fully ironed out yet.
Eventually, though, even the returns from venture capital will diminish, just like in every other industry. So, what technology window are you playing in? Let’s use B2B software as an example.
Over the past few decades, we’ve seen three major windows in this space: on-premise, SaaS, and now AI.
We’re currently eight years into the AI window, and there’s still a massive opportunity here. But you must recognize where you stand—not just in the broad AI window, but in specific sub-windows or even sub-sub-windows. For example, with over a million B2B SaaS sales people already out there, trying to sell into this market is exponentially harder than it was a decade ago.
Your best shot, then, is to ride a technology window in its early phases. That’s where the magic happens. But what’s also critical is recognizing where you fit into the lifecycle of these windows. The personalities that succeed during the open phase—creative dreamers and hobbyists—are not the same as the hard-nosed spreadsheet analysts who thrive in the closed phase.
This brings us to an important distinction: we’re not talking about business cycles here. Business cycles are largely psychological—driven by exuberance and fear, interest rates, and macroeconomic trends. They are not where the real action is for founders. The real action is in these technology windows.
While you can build companies without riding technological waves—Starbucks is a good example, relying on branding and packaging rather than technological innovation—the largest companies are nearly always built on the back of new technologies. Why? Because when new technologies disrupt entire industries, the potential energy for creating enormous value is vastly higher.
That’s where the best opportunities lie. So, ask yourself: what technology window are you jumping into? For many founders right now, AI is the obvious choice. It’s still fresh, but the competition is fierce. It’s phase 4 of the AI window, and it’s moving fast. The stakes are high, and the incumbents are circling.
Yet, despite all the hype, there are still many open windows in AI. Whether it’s AI-driven robotics, AI for SMBs, or AI-powered fintech, the potential remains vast. But the window is closing, as it always does. And once it’s closed, the landscape will look very different.
The key to building something big is recognizing these windows, seizing the moment, and having the self-awareness to know where you fit in the life cycle. If you miss the window, your opportunity shrinks. But if you catch it, the possibilities are endless.
About the writer:
Sixtus Njoku is the head of Velara, where he is leading the charge in developing large foundational models optimized for intelligence. With a deep passion for innovation, Sixtus has also worked as a consultant for prominent blockchain fintech companies like BoundlessPay. Holding an MSc in Information Systems Management from the University of Bedfordshire, Sixtus’s expertise has earned him recognition as a panel judge for prestigious awards such as the Stevie Awards and Globee Awards.
