This phenomenon made healthcare delivery cumbersome and wholesomeness is not easily achieved.

Equally, Africa’s healthcare systems have long grappled with structural vulnerabilities, limited local manufacturing capacity, dependence on imports, and fragile supply chains.

These challenges were brought into sharp focus during the COVID-19 pandemic, when global disruptions exposed the continent’s heavy reliance on external sources for critical medical supplies.

Yet, amid these challenges, a quiet transformation has been underway laced with innovation, foresight, and the strategic deployment of technology.

At the center of this transformation is the growing adoption of in-vitro diagnostics (IVD) manufacturing across Africa, championed by companies like Codix Bio.

Long before the pandemic, Codix had identified the urgent need for local healthcare manufacturing and took a bold step with the establishment of Colexa Biosensor in 2017.

This move was not reactive, but strategic, anticipating a future where Africa would need to take greater control of its healthcare value chain.

The COVID-19 crisis accelerated this vision. As borders closed and access to essential diagnostics became constrained, local manufacturing shifted from a long-term ambition to an immediate necessity.

In response, Codix fast-tracked the development of Colexa Biosensor, which has since become a landmark facility, the first manufacturer of blood glucose meters and test strips in Nigeria and Sub-Saharan Africa, and only the second of its kind on the continent after Algeria.

This milestone brings to the fore a broader shift: technology is no longer just a support function in healthcare, it is now central to building resilience, ensuring access, and improving outcomes.

By leveraging advanced biosensor technology and automated production systems, facilities like Colexa Biosensor are reducing dependency on imports while improving the availability of essential diagnostic tools for millions.

Global collaboration has also played a critical role in accelerating this progress. Organisations such as the World Health Organisation and the Medicines Patent Pool (MPP) have been instrumental in facilitating technology transfer and expanding access to critical health innovations.

Through the WHO’s Health Technology Access Programme (HTAP), Codix was identified as a key partner in strengthening Africa’s manufacturing capacity.

A major breakthrough came via a sublicensing agreement brokered by MPP, enabling Codix Bio to access and deploy cutting-edge rapid diagnostic test (RDT) technology from SD Biosensor.

This partnership builds on a long standing relationship between the companies, dating back to 2009, and represents a powerful example of how global expertise can be effectively localised.

The implications of this are profound. With local production of rapid diagnostic tests and other IVD tools, African countries can respond more swiftly to disease outbreaks, improve early detection rates, and strengthen overall public health systems.

Beyond healthcare outcomes, this also drives economic value, creating jobs, building technical expertise, and fostering industrial growth.

However, the journey is far from complete. To fully realise the potential of technology-driven healthcare solutions, Africa must continue to invest in infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and human capital.

Governments, private sector players, and development partners must align efforts to create an enabling environment that supports innovation and scale.

What is clear, however, is that the narrative is changing. Africa is no longer just a recipient of healthcare solutions, it is becoming a producer, an innovator, and a critical player in the global health ecosystem.

With technology and embracing local manufacturing, the continent is laying the foundation for a more resilient, self-sufficient, and equitable healthcare future.

Just as societies once mined rivers and mountains for precious metals, today’s civilisation mines algorithms, networks, and human creativity for prosperity.

Yet, unlike the predictable solidity of gold, digital wealth is fragile, contested, and vulnerable to exploitation.

This piece explores how the metaphor of evolving gold applies to three interconnected domains: cybersecurity, artificial intelligence (AI), and the future of work.

These domains are not isolated; they form a tripod of transformation shaping economies, governance, and human destiny.

To understand this evolution, we must examine how digital trust is secured, how intelligence is augmented, and how labour is redefined.

Cybersecurity: Guarding the Digital Gold

In the digital economy, trust is the new gold. Data integrity, privacy, and secure transactions underpin every aspect of modern life, from banking to healthcare, from governance to personal communication. Cybersecurity is therefore the vault in which this digital gold is stored.

Yet, unlike physical vaults, digital vaults are constantly under siege. Cybercriminals, state actors, and rogue insiders exploit vulnerabilities in systems, often faster than defenders can patch them.

The rise of ransomware, supply chain attacks, and deepfake technologies demonstrates that digital gold is not only valuable but also perilously exposed.

For nations, cybersecurity is no longer a technical issue but a strategic imperative. The disruption of critical infrastructure, energy grids, financial systems, or electoral processes, can destabilise entire societies. Nigeria, Africa, and indeed the global community must therefore treat cybersecurity as a pillar of sovereignty.

The Tripod Model of Security Reform, which I have advocated, emphasises preventive frameworks that anticipate threats before they materialise, responsive mechanisms that neutralise attacks swiftly, and restorative strategies that rebuild trust and resilience after breaches.

This tripod ensures that digital gold remains protected not only for individuals but for nations and generations.

Cybersecurity is not merely about technology; it is about ethics. Who owns data? Who decides how it is used? Who bears responsibility when trust is broken? These questions are as critical as encryption algorithms.

The digital age demands a moral compass to ensure that the pursuit of profit does not erode the sanctity of privacy and human dignity.

Artificial Intelligence: Refining Digital Gold

If cybersecurity guards digital gold, artificial intelligence refines it. AI transforms raw data into actionable insights, predictive models, and autonomous systems.

It is the alchemy of the digital age, turning information into innovation. From healthcare diagnostics to financial forecasting, from climate modelling to personalised education, AI is reshaping every sector.

Yet, like alchemy, AI carries both promise and peril. Its capacity to amplify human potential is matched by its ability to magnify bias, inequality, and surveillance.

AI systems are only as fair as the data they are trained on. When datasets reflect historical inequities, algorithms perpetuate them.

Thus, the digital gold refined by AI can become tainted. Addressing bias requires deliberate frameworks for inclusion, transparency, and accountability.

For Africa, where data ecosystems are still emerging, there is a unique opportunity to build AI systems that reflect indigenous values, cultural diversity, and equitable aspirations. Rather than importing biased models, nations can craft AI architectures rooted in local realities.

Contrary to fears that AI will replace human creativity, I argue that AI is a catalyst for creativity. Just as goldsmiths once shaped raw metal into art, humans today shape AI outputs into innovation.

The synergy between human imagination and machine intelligence is the true treasure of the digital age. However, this synergy requires humility. AI must remain a servant, not a master.

The danger lies in surrendering human agency to algorithms, allowing machines to dictate values, decisions, and destinies. The evolving gold of AI must therefore be tempered by ethical stewardship.

The Future of Work: Labour in the Digital Mines

The future of work is perhaps the most contested arena of digital transformation. Automation threatens traditional jobs, while new roles emerge in fields such as data science, cybersecurity, and AI ethics. The metaphor of mining is apt: some workers find themselves displaced as old mines close, while others discover new veins of opportunity in digital landscapes.

The challenge is not merely technological but social. How do societies ensure that workers are not discarded like obsolete tools? How do we retrain, reskill, and reimagine labour in ways that preserve dignity and inclusion?

The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the shift towards hybrid work, blending physical and digital spaces. Yet, this shift exposed stark inequities.

Workers with access to reliable internet, secure devices, and supportive environments thrived, while others were left behind. The future of work must therefore prioritise digital equity. Access to connectivity, tools, and training is the new gold standard of inclusion.

Without it, the digital mines will enrich a few while impoverishing many.

Work is not merely economic; it is spiritual. In Christian teaching, labour is a form of stewardship, a means of glorifying God through service.

The digital age must not strip work of its moral and spiritual dimensions. Instead, it must integrate values of justice, compassion, and community into new labour paradigms.

Thus, evolving gold in the future of work is not only about productivity but about purpose. It is about ensuring that digital labour contributes to human flourishing, not merely corporate profit.

Intersections: Cybersecurity, AI, and Work

The tripod of cybersecurity, AI, and work is interconnected. Cybersecurity ensures that digital labour is safe and trustworthy. AI enhances productivity and creativity in the workplace. Work provides the human context in which technology finds meaning.

Together, they form a cycle of evolving gold: trust enables intelligence, intelligence empowers labour, and labour sustains trust. Breaking any link in this cycle risks destabilising the entire system.

Policy and Leadership Imperatives

The evolving gold of the digital age requires education. Workers must be trained not only in technical skills but in ethical reasoning, critical thinking, and adaptive resilience. Universities, ministries, and organisations must therefore craft curricula that prepare citizens for both the opportunities and the risks of digital transformation.

Governments must establish regulatory frameworks that balance innovation with protection. Cybersecurity laws, AI ethics guidelines, and labour policies must be harmonised to ensure coherence. Fragmented regulation risks creating loopholes that undermine trust.

Finally, leadership must be inspired by values. As a General Evangelist, I emphasise that digital transformation must be guided by principles of justice, stewardship, and compassion.

Leaders must see themselves not merely as managers of technology but as custodians of human destiny.

Conclusion

Gold has always symbolised permanence, but in the digital age, permanence is elusive. Data can be corrupted, algorithms can be biased, and jobs can be displaced. Yet, the metaphor of evolving gold reminds us that value is not lost, it is transformed.

Cybersecurity guards this value, AI refines it, and work expresses it. Together, they form the tripod of digital destiny. The challenge for nations, organisations, and individuals is to mine this evolving gold responsibly, ethically, and inclusively.

As we stand at the crossroads of history, the digital age offers both peril and promise. The true measure of our civilisation will not be how much digital gold we accumulate but how wisely we steward it for the flourishing of humanity.

These nations have effectively leveraged EdTech to tackle major educational challenges such as resource shortages and teacher deficits, offering scalable, cost-effective, and high-quality learning materials.

Africa faces similar challenges, but the potential for EdTech here is particularly significant as the continent prepares for a demographic shift that will see its youth population represent over 40% of the global total by 2030.

This presents a critical opportunity for African countries to embrace EdTech as a key part of their educational strategies.

However, despite many governments dedicating around 5% of their GDP to education, the demand continues to outstrip the available resources.

Traditional education systems, often marked by overcrowded classrooms and a lack of trained teachers, are increasingly strained under the growing population.

UNESCO estimates that sub-Saharan Africa will need an additional 17 million teachers by 2030 to achieve universal primary and secondary education.

EdTech offers a promising solution by enabling remote learning, which can ease the pressure on physical classrooms and allow students to learn at their own pace.

Platforms like Edukoya in Nigeria and Kidato in Kenya are leading the way with online learning tailored to K-12 students.

Edukoya’s offerings, including 24/7 exam preparation tools and personalized performance tracking, demonstrate how technology can make quality education both accessible and affordable across the continent.

Similarly, ULesson has expanded its presence in Nigeria, Uganda, Kenya, and Ghana, helping students prepare for international exams with a freemium model.

However, the digital divide remains a significant barrier to realizing the full potential of EdTech in Africa.

With only 27% of sub-Saharan Africa having internet access, a large portion of the population is excluded from these digital advancements.

The World Bank estimates that $100 billion is needed to provide universal, good-quality, and affordable broadband access across the continent by 2030.

This investment must go beyond infrastructure, with 20% dedicated to building user skills and developing local content to ensure that EdTech solutions are relevant and effective.

Despite these challenges, innovative solutions are emerging. Companies like Syafunda and Snapplify are addressing connectivity issues by deploying “Wi-Fi boxes” preloaded with educational content to schools without internet access.

Additionally, Eneza and M-Shule in Kenya are using SMS-based platforms to reach students without smartphones, ensuring that education continues even in remote areas.

These efforts are crucial in narrowing the digital divide and enabling EdTech to thrive in challenging environments.

Globally, Africa’s EdTech landscape shares similarities with other developing regions like Southeast Asia and Latin America, where localized content and mobile learning platforms have successfully reached students in remote areas. India’s experience, particularly, offers valuable lessons.

Despite the surge in EdTech adoption during the COVID-19 pandemic, India’s sector faced significant challenges post-pandemic, including layoffs and a re-evaluation of business models.

This underscores the importance of sustainable, long-term strategies that complement rather than replace traditional teaching methods.

To ensure EdTech’s success in Africa, it must be thoughtfully integrated into existing educational frameworks. Rather than replacing traditional classrooms, EdTech should support teachers by providing remote coaching and enriching the learning experience.

This requires a collaborative effort from governments, private sector players, and civil society to create an environment where EdTech can flourish.

Policymakers need to prioritize infrastructure, support local content development, and equip educators with the skills to effectively use these new technologies.

Therefore, while the challenges of implementing EdTech in Africa are substantial, the potential benefits are even greater.

By addressing the digital divide and fostering inclusive growth, EdTech can play a transformative role in African education, equipping millions of young people with the tools they need to thrive in an increasingly digital world.

The success of this transformation will depend on collective action, sustained investment, and a commitment to long-term value over short-term gains.

As Africa stands on the verge of this educational revolution, embracing EdTech is not just an option—it is essential for securing the continent’s future.

*Mahmood Owolabi is the Co-founder, Transition School. Email: mahmood@transitionschool.uk.

Maryamu Idris, Executive Director, Crude & Condensate, NNPC Trading Limited, said in a panel presentation at the Argus European Crude Conference in London, that in addition to the substantial price shocks impacting commodity and energy prices globally, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has triggered a situation where India, a primary destination for Nigerian grades, increased its appetite for discounted Russian barrels to the detriment of some Nigerian volumes.

NNPCL Working with Stakeholders on NEITI 2021 Account Reconciliation

“To illustrate the extent of this shift, Nigeria’s crude exports to India dwindled from approximately 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the six months preceding the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine to 194,000 in the subsequent six months afterwards. And so far, this year, only around 120,000 bpd of Nigerian crude volumes have made their way to India,” she said.

On the other hand, she noted that the Nigerian crude flow to Europe has increased in a bid to fill supply gaps left by the ban on Russian crude, pointing out that six months before the war, 678,000 bpd of Nigerian crude grades went to Europe, compared to 710,000 bpd six months later and 730,000 bpd so far this year.

“This trend makes it evident that Nigerian grades are increasingly becoming a significant component in the post-war palette of European refiners. Several Nigerian distillate-rich grades have become a steady preference for many European refiners, given the absence of Russian Urals and diesel. Forcados Blend, Escravos Light, Bonga, and Egina appear to be the most popular, and our latest addition — Nembe Crude – fits well into this basket. This was a strong factor behind our choice of London and the Argus European Crude Conference as the most ideal launch hub for the grade,” Idris also said.

On production challenges, Idris remarked that, like many other oil-producing countries, Nigeria had faced production challenges aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic, including reduced investment in the upstream sector, supply chain disruptions impacting upstream operations, ageing oil fields, and oil theft by unscrupulous elements.

These factors, she said, contributed to production declines in the second half of 2022 and early 2023.

Idris, however, noted that the challenges are fast becoming a thing of the past with the introduction and implementation of a new framework for the domestic petroleum industry (the PIA of 2021), rejuvenating the business landscape, and re-positioning NNPC Limited to adopt a more commercial approach to the management of the nation’s hydrocarbon resources.

According to her, NNPC Limited has secured vital partnerships with notable financial institutions to promote upstream investments to restore and sustainably grow production capacity in the coming years.

“NNPC Limited is championing concerted efforts in partnership with host communities and private stakeholders to address the security and environmental challenges in the Niger Delta to further fortify production growth. Suffice to say we have already begun seeing significant progress on the rebound. In September 2023, Nigeria recorded its highest crude oil and condensate output in nearly two years, reaching 1.72 million barrels per day. This, we believe, is just the beginning of our production rebound.”

She affirmed that in addition to sustainably growing upstream production volumes, NNPC Limited is also increasing its participation in the downstream sector in line with a ‘wells-to-wheels’ approach, taking the country’s unique hydrocarbon molecules as close as possible to end-users.

The vehicle for this, she said, is the restructured NNPC Trading Company, focused on growing NNPC’s presence in the global market for crude, condensate, gas, and petroleum products.

The Argus Crude European Crude Conference Panel Session was held with the theme, ‘The Invisible Hand: How Are Shareholders and Asset Managers Meeting the Crude Industry? What Does This Mean for the Future of Crude in Europe?’

Vice President Crude of Argus, James Gooder, moderated the event.

Economic recovery and growth are top of mind for countries and many are now realising that accelerated digital transformation is at the heart of achieving this.

Forward-thinking leaders, policymakers and organisations are turning to AI – which is helping organisations experience the equivalent of 10 years of growth in less than one year in areas such as e-commerce.

By leveraging emerging technologies like AI, countries can surely drive greater efficiencies, create jobs, enhance competitiveness and productivity.

A recent IBM report revealed that nearly half of global businesses (43%) accelerated their rollout of AI over the last year as organisations looked to virtual assistants to automate workflows.

Additionally, 80% of companies stated they had plans to roll out some form of automation software over the next 12 months.

The increased use of AI isn’t limited to organisations and businesses. AI is playing a key role in crucial industries such as agriculture.

It can help to deliver data analytics and predictive insights to help farmers make better-informed decisions.

This will lead to improved agricultural outputs for smallholder farmers and big agribusiness players – promoting sustainable development and boosting food security.

With that potential in mind, these are the Top Five AI Trends that will give the agricultural sector and organisations a digital advantage in 2022.

1. AI creates a reliable, sustainable future

Consumers, regulators and shareholders are putting greater pressure on companies to make tangible sustainability gains.

Climate change and extreme weather events also put a strain on supply chains and business operations.

As these pressures continue to grow in 2022, AI will play a key role in helping businesses achieve sustainability benchmarks through greater measurement, data collection, and carbon accounting, as well as improved predictiveness and greater supply chain resiliency.

2. AI will drastically improve sustainable farming on land by helping farmers to forecast weather conditions

Farmers across Africa have always wrangled with weather – drought, flooding or something in between.

AI and IoT apps such as FarmWeather will help small-holder farmers maximise crop output despite unpredictable weather conditions by providing risk forecasts and crop advice for a 3-4km radius of a farm and will also allow information sharing – including via SMS for farmers without access to the Internet or a smartphone.

3. AI will open up horizons for the agriculture ecosystem, allowing farmers to produce more with fewer resources, and consequently to be more efficient, profitable and sustainable

Different producers in the agricultural food chain are faced with the challenge of improving their profitability in harmony with a sustainable and balanced development model.

Technologies such as AI can be used by farmers to gather information about their crops and give them the insights they need to make decisions quickly.

4. AI will help to deliver sustainable aquaculture to help recover the oceans

There are several threats currently facing our oceans. Better allocation of ocean resources – enabled by emerging technologies – can play a role in making a difference in improving sustainability in aquaculture.

Characterising fish welfare using AI will provide more granular insight into conditions, for example within a salmon cage, by combining information on environmental conditions and fish welfare.

These trends have an enormous potential to improve people’s lives through access to better, and more reliable access to goods, services, food and information.

To learn more about how AI is transforming industries ranging from retail to financial services, click here.

5. Businesses reduce costs by applying AI to better predict IT issues – before they happen

In 2021, CIOs were tasked with moving their workforces remotely, managing new types of security concerns as a result, making sense of the explosion of data produced by modern applications, monitoring solutions and increased use of digital channels by employees and consumers.

Businesses applied AI to better predict IT issues, which has led to an area called AIOps.

In 2022, AIOps will allow IT teams to quickly and confidently diagnose problems faster than they could manually, freeing them from laborious, time-intensive tasks to focus on delivering higher-value work for the organisation.

AIOps will also enable these IT teams to identify patterns in data that could ultimately indicate when a potential issue could occur, getting ahead of IT issues before they happen.

Conclusion

For AI to continue to advance in these areas, companies and organisations need to make progress in earning greater consumer trust. The battle for consumer trust takes place on multiple fronts, from the ability to make AI decisions understandable and explainable to providing consumers with confidence that their personal data is being protected against cyberattacks.

As companies and governments continue to invest in cybersecurity, AI will play an even more crucial role in helping identify and respond to threats more efficiently, as they move towards a “zero trust” approach to further reduce risks.

These AI trends have the potential to create enorm​ous benefits for consumers and will help tackle Nigeria’s biggest challenges by being more trustworthy, explainable, transparent and fair.

This will ensure that progress made in 2022 will ensure AI’s positive impact on us all in the years to come.

Key Points:

• Pandemic outbreak drops from first to ninth position as majority of companies are less concerned and feel adequately prepared for future outbreaks.
• Political risks and violence is still a major concern in Nigeria as it moves from fifth to second.
• AGCS CEO Joachim Mueller: “’Business interrupted’ will likely remain the key underlying risk theme for this year. Building resilience is becoming a competitive advantage for companies.”

The threat of ransomware attacks, data breaches or major IT outages worries companies even more than business and supply chain disruption, natural disasters or the Covid-19 pandemic, all of which have heavily affected firms in the past year.

Globally, cyber incidents tops the Allianz Risk Barometer for only the second time in the survey’s history (44% of responses), Business interruption drops to a close second (42%) and Natural catastrophes ranks third (25%), up from sixth in 2021.

Climate change climbs to its highest-ever ranking of sixth (17%, up from ninth), while Pandemic outbreak drops to fourth (22%). The annual survey from Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) incorporates the views of 2,650 experts in 89 countries and territories, including CEOs, risk managers, brokers and insurance experts. View the full global and country risk rankings. Watch the video.

“’Business interrupted’ will likely remain the key underlying risk theme in 2022,” AGCS CEO Joachim Mueller summarizes. “For most companies the biggest fear is not being able to produce their products or deliver their services. 2021 saw unprecedented levels of disruption, caused by various triggers. Crippling cyber-attacks, the supply chain impact from many climate change-related weather events, as well as pandemic-related manufacturing problems and transport bottlenecks wreaked havoc. This year only promises a gradual easing of the situation, although further Covid-19-related problems cannot be ruled out. Building resilience against the many causes of business interruption is increasingly becoming a competitive advantage for companies.”

Violence, changes in legislation and regulation rising concerns in Nigeria

According to the Allianz Risk Barometer 2022, political risks and violence and changes in legislation and regulation are rising concerns for businesses in Nigeria. Political risks and violence moved from fifth to second following #EndSars in 2020. Changes in legislation and regulation moves up four places to fourth in the country.

“Fortunately, large scale terrorism events have declined drastically in the last five years. However, the number, scale and duration of riots and protests in the last two years is staggering and we have seen businesses suffering significant losses,” says Bjoern Reusswig, head of Global Political Violence and Hostile Environment Solutions at AGCS. “Civil unrest has soared, driven by protests on issues ranging from economic hardship to police brutality which have affected citizens around the world. And the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is making things worse – with little sign of an end to the economic downturn in sight, the number of protests is likely to continue climbing.”

“Preparation is key – in particular for exposed sectors such as retail,” explains Thusang Mahlangu AGCS Africa CEO. “Businesses need to review their business continuity plans (BCP) and should be aware of what is happening around them. Typically, these only focus on national catastrophes, but there is a need for BCP plans to address political disturbances and other types of business disruption like cyber. Having defined, and preferably tested, procedures in place is crucial – these should include staff, client and general communication and social media plans. It is imperative for companies to think deeply about how they can best protect their assets and people.”

Ransomware drives cyber concerns while awareness of BI vulnerabilities grows

Cyber incidents ranks as a top three peril in most countries and regions surveyed including Nigeria, South Africa as well as Africa and Middle East, shows the Allianz Risk Barometer 2022.

The main driver is the recent surge in ransomware attacks, which are confirmed as the top cyber threat for the year ahead by survey respondents (57%).

Recent attacks, the Allianz Risk Barometer 2022 document, have shown worrying trends such as ‘double extortion’ tactics combining the encryption of systems with data breaches; exploiting software vulnerabilities which potentially affect thousands of companies (for example, Log4J, Kaseya) or targeting physical critical infrastructure (the Colonial pipeline in the US).

Cyber security also ranks as companies’ major environmental, social and governance (ESG) concern with respondents acknowledging the need to build resilience and plan for future outages or face the growing consequences from regulators, investors and other stakeholders.

“Ransomware has become a big business for cyber criminals, who are refining their tactics, lowering the barriers to entry for as little as a $40 subscription and little technological knowledge. The commercialization of cyber crime makes it easier to exploit vulnerabilities on a massive scale. We will see more attacks against technology supply chains and critical infrastructure,” explains Scott Sayce, Global Head of Cyber at AGCS.

Business interruption (BI) ranks as the second most concerning risk globally and in Africa and Middle East and South Africa but moves down two places to sixth in Nigeria. However, it ranked first in Ghana, Kenya, Morocco and Namibia.

In a year marked by widespread disruption, the extent of vulnerabilities in modern supply chains and production networks is more obvious than ever.

According to the survey, the most feared cause of BI is cyber incidents, reflecting the rise in ransomware attacks but also the impact of companies’ growing reliance on digitalization and the shift to remote working.

Natural catastrophes and pandemic are the two other important triggers for BI in the view of respondents.

In the past year post-lockdown surges in demand have combined with disruption to production and logistics, as Covid-19 outbreaks in Asia closed factories and caused record congestion levels in container shipping ports. Pandemic-related delays compounded other supply chain issues, such as the Suez Canal blockage or the global shortage of semiconductors after plant closures in Taiwan, Japan and Texas from weather events and fires.

“The pandemic has exposed the extent of interconnectivity in modern supply chains and how multiple unrelated events can come together to create widespread disruption. For the first time the resilience of supply chains has been tested to breaking point on a global scale,” says Philip Beblo, property industry lead, Technology, Media and Telecoms, at AGCS.

According to the recent Euler Hermes Global Trade Report, the Covid-19 pandemic will likely drive high levels of supply chain disruption into the second half of 2022, although mismatches in global demand and supply and container shipping capacity are eventually predicted to ease, assuming no further unexpected developments.

Awareness of BI risks is becoming an important strategic issue across entire companies. “There is a growing willingness among top management to bring more transparency to supply chains with organizations investing in tools and working with data to better understand the risks and create inventories, redundancies and contingency plans for business continuity,” says Maarten van der Zwaag, Global Head of Property Risk Consulting at AGCS.

Pandemic preparations improve. Next up – making businesses more weatherproof

Pandemic outbreak remains a major concern for companies but drops from second to fourth position globally and from first to ninth in Nigeria (although the survey predated the emergence of the Omicron variant). However, the risk moved up from fourth to third in Ghana, which shows that companies are still concerned about the peril.

While the Covid-19 crisis continues to overshadow the economic outlook in many industries, encouragingly, businesses do feel they have adapted well.

The majority of respondents (80%) think they are adequately or well-prepared for a future incident.

Improving business continuity management is the main action companies are taking to make them more resilient.

The rise of Natural catastrophes and Climate change to third and sixth position globally respectively is telling, with both upwards trends closely related. Recent years have shown the frequency and severity of weather events are increasing due to global warming. For 2021, global insured catastrophe losses were well in excess of $100bn – the fourth highest year on record.

Hurricane Ida in the US may have been the costliest event, but more than half of the losses came from so-called secondary perils such as floods, heavy rain, thunderstorms, tornados and even winter freezes, which can often be local but increasingly costly events.

Examples included Winter Storm Uri in Texas, the low-pressure weather system Bernd, which triggered catastrophic flooding in Germany and Benelux countries, the heavy flooding in Zhengzhou, China, and heatwaves and bushfires in Canada and California.

Allianz Risk Barometer 2022 respondents are most concerned about climate-change related weather events causing damage to corporate property (57%), followed by BI and supply chain impact (41%).

However, they are also worried about managing the transition of their businesses to a low-carbon economy (36%), fulfilling complex regulation and reporting requirements and avoiding potential litigation risks for not adequately taking action to address climate change (34%).

“The pressure on businesses to act on climate change has increased noticeably over the past year, with a growing focus on net-zero contributions,” observes Line Hestvik, chief sustainability officer at Allianz SE. “There is a clear trend for companies towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions in operations or exploring business opportunities for climate-friendly technologies and sustainable products. In the coming years, many corporate decision-makers will be looking even more closely at the impact of climate risks in their value chain and taking appropriate precautions. Many companies are building up dedicated competencies around climate risk mitigation, bringing together both risk management and sustainability experts.”

Businesses also have to become more weatherproof against extreme events such as hurricanes or flooding.

“Previous once-in-a-century-events may well occur more frequently in future and also in regions which were considered ‘safe’ in the past. Both buildings and business continuity planning need to become more robust in response,” says van der Zwaag.

Other risers and fallers in this year’s Allianz Risk Barometer:

• Shortage of skilled workforce (13%) is a new entry in the top 10 risks at number nine. Attracting and retaining workers has rarely been more challenging. Respondents rank this as a top five risk in the engineering, construction, real estate, public service and healthcare sectors, and as the top risk for transportation.
• Changes in legislation and regulation remains fifth (19%) globally but moves up four places to fourth in Nigeria. Prominent regulatory initiatives on companies’ radars in 2022 include anti-competitive practices targeting big tech, as well as sustainability initiatives with the EU taxonomy scheme.
• Fire and explosion (17%) is a perennial risk for companies, ranking seventh as in last year’s survey. Market developments (15%) falls from fourth to eighth year-on-year but moves up six places to fourth in Nigeria. Macroeconomic developments (11%) falls from eighth to 10^th globally but remains unchanged at number three in Nigeria.