The Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) has uncovered reasons for the recent drop in electricity generation across the country.
NISO attributed the decrease to persistent gas supply shortages affecting several thermal power plants.
The system operator had earlier warned electricity distribution companies (DisCos) that energy allocations would be reduced because a number of generating stations were unable to secure enough gas to sustain operations.
Grid output falls below 4,000MW
Latest operational data from NISO shows the national grid is struggling to maintain stable output as gas shortages continue to constrain generation capacity.
“The Nigerian Independent System Operator wishes to inform stakeholders and the public of the continued decline in electricity generation on the national grid arising from persistent gas supply constraints affecting several thermal power plants,” the agency said in a statement.
Grid stability has become a huge concern, with generation figures constantly falling short of the levels required to meet national electricity demand.
Morning peak disrupted by 292MW loss
The situation worsened in the early hours of Thursday, March 5, when several generating units shut down due to insufficient gas pressure.
“As at 05:00 hours of today Thursday, 5th March 2026, total generation on the national grid stood at 3,940.53MW, which was already below expected capacity due to existing gas supply limitations impacting a number of generating stations,” NISO said.
It added that between 06:00 and 08:00 hours, additional generating units were forced offline as gas supply dropped further.
The shutdowns led to a cumulative loss of about 292MW, placing more pressure on the transmission network during the morning peak.
Gas supply meets only 40% of demand
According to NISO, the central challenge facing the power sector remains the wide gap between the volume of gas required by power plants and what is currently available.
Operational figures for March 4 show that thermal plants require about 1,588.61 million standard cubic feet (MMSCF) of gas per day to run at optimal capacity.
However, the total gas supplied to the plants stood at approximately 652.92MMSCF, representing only about 40% of the sector’s daily requirement.
This leaves a deficit of nearly 60%, limiting the ability of power stations to generate electricity at full capacity.
Scale of the supply shortfall
Data released by the system operator reveal the depth of the gap between demand and available gas supply:
- Optimal daily gas requirement: 1,588.61 MMSCF
- Actual daily supply:92 MMSCF
- Generation at 05:00 hrs: 3,940.53 MW
- Gas supply shortfall:69 MMSCF
The shortage explains why grid output has remained stuck around the 3,900MW range, well below the country’s installed generation capacity.
NISO engages GenCos, gas suppliers
NISO said it is working with power generation companies and gas suppliers to address the supply disruption and restore generation levels.
“These developments further reduced the total generation available for dispatch to the national grid and have contributed to the current generation inadequacy being experienced across the system,” the operator said.
The agency added that discussions are ongoing with Generation Companies (GenCos) and gas producers to stabilise supply to the affected plants.
While the grid operator manages dispatch and system stability, many of the constraints in gas supply stem from commercial and operational challenges within the upstream and midstream segments of the energy sector.
NISO said it is taking operational steps to keep the grid stable while efforts continue to restore gas volumes.
“The system operator remains committed to keeping stakeholders and the public informed on developments affecting the national grid,” the statement said.
