Nigeria’s headline inflation rate for December 2025 is expected to show a sharp but temporary increase, driven largely by a technical base effect rather than underlying economic pressures.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the anticipated rise reflects a one-off statistical rebasing and does not signal a broader inflationary trend.
Ayo Anthony, head of Price Statistics at NBS, explained this at a stakeholder engagement organised by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) on Monday, January 13, 2026, ahead of the official release of the December inflation data on Thursday, January 15, 2026.
“Projections show that without adjustment, December year-on-year inflation could appear unusually high due solely to arithmetic base effects, rather than actual economic conditions,” Anthony said.
He added,
“The spike does not reflect our economic fundamentals. We are releasing both the spiked figures and the official headline inflation that policymakers will use. We expect a reversal in January 2026 as the numbers normalise.”
The NBS explained that following the ‘price reference period’ from January to December 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was re-referenced. This rebasing is expected to create an artificial spike in December 2025’s figures.
According to the bureau, the December 2025 headline inflation rate could edge above 30% due to the low base effect, even as general prices continue to trend downward, supported by falling food and energy costs.
For most of 2025, Nigeria’s headline inflation slowed, with only a minor uptick in March.
Prices dropped to 14.45% in November, down from 16.1% in October. Analysts have noted that this disinflationary trend reflected statistical adjustments more than a full resolution of price pressures.
The continued moderation helped the government meet its 2025 inflation target of 15%, the first time in six years that actual inflation aligned with projections.
Last year, NBS rebased Nigeria’s CPI for the first time in 15 years, updating the base year to 2024 and adjusting consumption weights.
This methodological change caused a sharp statistical drop in headline inflation from roughly 34.8% in December 2024 to 24.48% in January 2025.
Multiple economic projections suggest that Nigeria’s inflation outlook will remain moderate, aided by easing pressures, including slowing food prices, a stronger naira that gained 7.5% by the end of 2025, and declining pump prices.
An analyst at CardinalStone noted,
“The introduction of the 2024 base year created an unusually low comparison point. This could mechanically lift the headline reading to around 32.07% in December 2025, before normalising in January 2026.”
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) expects the 2026 average inflation rate to settle at 12.94%, anticipating declines in the prices of food and Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) compared with 2025. The bank also expects reduced cost pressures and a more stable economy in 2026.
Investors, policymakers, and the public are awaiting the NBS December 2025 headline inflation report, the first release of the year, which will guide early investment and economic decisions.
