Nigeria’s dependence on foreign refined petroleum persisted through 2025, as the country spent a staggering ₦8.96 trillion on petrol imports, even as domestic refining capacity began to show signs of life.
According to the latest Foreign Trade Statistics report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) remained one of Nigeria’s most significant import commodities, accounting for a substantial portion of the country’s foreign exchange outflow.
While the 2025 figure represents a 41.9% decline from the ₦15.42 trillion spent in 2024, it still stands 19.3% higher than the ₦7.51 trillion recorded in 2023, the year the fuel subsidy was officially removed.
The data reveals a fluctuating pattern in import expenditure throughout the year. After a relatively stable start, spending on petrol surged in the final months of 2025:
- Q1 2025: ₦1.76 trillion
- Q2 2025: ₦2.38 trillion (A 35.2% increase)
- Q3 2025: ₦1.29 trillion (A sharp 45.8% drop)
- Q4 2025: ₦3.54 trillion (A massive 174.4% rebound)
In the fourth quarter alone, petrol reclaimed its position as Nigeria’s top imported commodity globally. Interestingly, the NBS data highlighted Togo as a major regional source, with Nigeria spending ₦84.69 billion on petrol imports from the West African neighbor in Q4 2025.
Other major suppliers included the Netherlands (₦1.22 trillion) and Brazil (₦221.15 billion).
The Supply Paradox
The sustained high import bill comes despite the operational take-off of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and efforts to rehabilitate state-owned refineries.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) indicates that while domestic refineries significantly increased their output, supplying an average of 36.5 million litres per day in early 2026, total national consumption of approximately 56 million litres still necessitates a supplementary import volume.
Pricing Dynamics: Imports vs. Local Supply
As of mid-March 2026, a unique market dynamic has emerged. The Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) reported that the landing cost of imported petrol stood at ₦1,080.47 per litre, roughly ₦94.53 cheaper than the domestic gantry price of ₦1,175 per litre.
This price gap has provided a fresh incentive for marketers to continue importation, even as the Federal Government maintains a policy of not issuing new import licenses for the first quarter of 2026 to protect local refining interests.
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The ₦8.96 trillion bill represents a massive drain on Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves. As long as the country remains 60–70% dependent on imported fuel, the Naira will remain vulnerable to international energy price shocks.
The fact that imported petrol is currently undercutting local gantry prices suggests that domestic refineries may need to optimize their cost structures or supply chains to remain competitive without heavy regulatory protection.
With retail prices hovering between ₦1,200 and ₦1,300 per litre across various states, the high cost of energy continues to be the primary driver of core inflation, affecting transport, logistics, and the prices of basic goods.
