The enforcement of Nigeria’s SIM-NIN linkage policy has led to a sharp decline in active mobile subscriptions, with a recent data release from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) revealing a drop of over 64.3 million lines across major mobile network operators.
This decline, recorded by the end of September 2024, shows the impact of the September 14 deadline set by the NCC to verify all SIMs against their respective National Identification Numbers (NIN).
This regulatory mandate has brought Nigeria’s total active mobile subscriber base down to 153.3 million from 219 million in March, representing a 30% reduction.
Operators Globacom and 9mobile were particularly affected, each experiencing huge reductions in their subscription databases. Globacom saw the most impact, with its active subscriptions plummeting from 62.1 million to just 19.1 million, a drop of 43 million subscriptions.
Similarly, 9mobile’s active customer base dropped from 11.6 million to 3.6 million, amounting to a loss of around eight million subscriptions.
While MTN and Airtel, the top two operators, also recorded losses, the impact was less severe. MTN, Nigeria’s largest mobile network provider, saw a reduction of 3.7 million subscriptions, bringing its total to 78 million as of September.
Airtel, the second-largest operator, ended the period with 53.7 million subscriptions after a decline of 9.6 million. Although these companies were less affected in terms of numbers, both are expected to see financial implications in their Q3 2024 revenue reports due to the reduced subscriber base.
Airtel Africa, the parent company of Airtel Nigeria, previously reported a potential $4 million monthly revenue loss tied to the verification exercise, which had hindered the validation of around 4.9 million customers’ NINs by June 2024. Similarly, MTN disclosed it had disconnected over four million unlinked lines earlier in the year, albeit attributing this impact to low-value subscribers.
The September verification deadline capped a multi-year policy rollout that began in December 2020, aiming to link each mobile line to a verified NIN. Following several extensions and warnings, the NCC enforced a final deadline in mid-September, after which unlinked SIMs were deactivated.
In March alone, over 40 million lines were barred, causing disruptions that led to consumer unrest and a temporary suspension of the policy until September to allow further compliance.
Speaking on this development, Dr Aminu Maida, the Executive Vice Chairman of the NCC, noted the importance of the verification exercise for national security. “Every active phone number in Nigeria is now tied to a verified NIN, creating a transparent system that enhances security and accountability,” he stated during the 2024 Corporate Governance Conference in Lagos.
Dr. Maida emphasised that, with this linkage, law enforcement agencies could better track and identify users involved in criminal activities.
Telecom expert Adewale Adeoye also commended the outcome, noting that the exercise has effectively sanitised the subscriber database. “This is a positive move for the telecom sector and the country. The exercise ensures a transparent system, which could enhance public safety if effectively used by security agencies,” Adeoye stated.
The NCC’s focus on regulatory integrity is stressed by its recent discovery of misreported subscription data, which inflated one operator’s database by millions of inactive lines. This incident led to the correction of 40 million erroneously reported subscriptions, further emphasising the regulator’s commitment to maintaining an accurate industry database.
Although some affected lines have been reactivated after compliance, the NCC continues to advise barred subscribers to visit their respective operators to link their SIMs and restore service.
The regulator is expected to release updated telecommunications data shortly, reflecting the current subscriber indices across networks post-verification.
