October painted a brighter picture for Nigeria’s private sector. After months of cautious optimism, the country’s business landscape seemed to find new rhythm, faster output, stronger demand, and a hint of renewed confidence.
The numbers tell the story: both output and new orders rose sharply, surpassing September’s performance and signaling a stronger start to the final quarter of 2025.
Behind these numbers lies the Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), the pulse-check of Nigeria’s private sector. The index climbed from 53.4 in September to 54.0 in October, marking the 11th consecutive month of expansion.
Readings above 50.0 point to improving business conditions, and October’s figures didn’t just sustain the momentum, they accelerated it.
The Story Behind the Numbers
For many Nigerian businesses, October felt different. The softening of price pressures and the rollout of new products breathed fresh life into demand.
Customers were not only spending again but also seeking innovation, pushing new orders up to 56.3 points, from 55.4 in September. In response, companies expanded operations, increased purchases, and even added new staff, a rare combination that reflected cautious confidence.
“Business activity started the last quarter of 2025 on a strong note,” said Muyiwa Oni, head of Equity Research (West Africa) at Stanbic IBTC Bank. “The headline PMI printed higher at 54.0 points in October, driven by higher output and new orders. Continued softening of price pressures and the launch of new products helped drive this momentum.”
Manufacturing led the pack, posting the fastest output growth among all four surveyed sectors, manufacturing, agriculture, services, and construction.
Overall, output reached 57.7 points, the highest since April, supported by increased domestic orders and improved supply chains.
Inflation Eases, But Not Uniformly
Inflation, long the Achilles’ heel of Nigerian business planning, showed tentative signs of restraint. Input costs rose again in October but at a much slower pace than the surges of 2023 and 2024. Output prices, the prices businesses charge customers, increased too, though at the second-slowest rate in five-and-a-half years.
Stanbic IBTC projects that headline inflation, which eased to 18.02% year-on-year in September, could moderate further to around 15.8%–16.2% in October and 14.2%–14.6% in November.
This anticipated cooling is largely tied to declining food prices during the main harvest season, which is expected to stabilize costs until December.
Non-food inflation, however, faces upward pressure due to higher fuel prices and temporary supply challenges linked to production glitches at the Dangote Refinery, which supplies up to 40% of Nigeria’s petrol.
Despite these hiccups, a more stable naira is expected to provide relief, keeping non-food inflation in check in the short term.
Jobs, Power, and Patience
While the improved outlook encouraged firms to hire, job creation remained modest. October marked the fifth straight month of employment growth, but power outages and delayed client payments limited the pace of expansion.
Some firms faced backlogs and operational delays, yet many kept optimism alive, nearly 46% of surveyed businesses expect output to rise over the next 12 months.
In the words of one manufacturing executive surveyed:
“We’re seeing demand again, but we’re being careful. Stability matters now more than ever, in prices, power, and policy.”
A Glimpse into 2025
Stanbic IBTC expects Nigeria’s economy to grow by about 4.0% in 2025, buoyed by lower inflation, a stabilizing exchange rate, and the potential for monetary policy easing in the months ahead. Both manufacturing and services are projected to expand more robustly than they did in 2024, with the PMI trends hinting at a stronger, more confident private sector.
As businesses continue to innovate, diversify, and rebuild trust in the economic system, Nigeria’s real sector appears to be learning to dance again, cautiously, but with steady steps forward.
